Five key messages from the Independent Sentencing Review report: ‘History and Trends in Sentencing’

The Independent Sentencing Review’s report ‘History and Trends in Sentencing’ (published 18th February 2025) outlines the current prison population overcrowding crisis and the drivers of this.  

Nacro’s Head of Policy and Service User Engagement, Andrea Coady, highlights the five key take-aways from the report:  

1. The criminal justice system is on the brink of collapse 

Prisons: The figures paint a bleak picture. Simply put, the number of people in prison exceeds the population the system is designed to accommodate: 

• At the end of 2024, over 85,000 adults were in prison  

• The total prison population has doubled since 1993, growing by over 40,000 people  

• England and Wales have one of the highest prison population rates in Western Europe 

Probation: The Probation Service is similarly overstretched: 

• Over 240,000 people are under probation supervision, over 100,000 more than in 1993 

The hard facts of prison overcrowding echo the experiences our service users have described; appalling conditions in prison, soaring mental health issues, not enough access to education and work and too few staff to support them. This has to change.

2. If action isn’t taken, the crisis will only get worse

The report underscores that “[w]ithout serious intervention, the current prison capacity crisis will persist and escalate far beyond manageable levels. It is imperative that this imbalance is addressed to ensure the system remains sustainable long-term.” 

Prison demand is expected to grow by an average of 3,000 people a year– this is the equivalent of building two large prisons per year. With an upfront capital cost per prison place of £500,000 (for a closed prison place), building our way out of the crisis is costly, and would divert money away from vital public services which could be a more effective means of reducing reoffending, such as providing mental health support. 

3. The ‘tough on crime’ agenda and a lack of a strategic, evidence–based approach has created a complex and inefficient justice system  

The report is clear that the increase in the prison and probation population is the consequence of a lack of a coherent evidence-based strategy based on what is most effective to reduce crime and reoffending. The report states “too often the knee-jerk response has been to increase sentence lengths as a demonstration of government action.” 

“The increase has been the result of many decisions made by successive governments and a “tough on crime” narrative that has focused primarily on punishment – understood as incarceration and longer sentences – on occasion responding to embedded misunderstandings about sentencing and high-profile individual cases. In tandem, there has been an underinvestment in probation and other alternatives that can provide rehabilitation and reduce reoffending.” 

“Rather than approach sentencing policy based on the evidence of what is likely to be most effective in reducing crime and reducing reoffending, too often the knee-jerk response has been to increase sentence lengths as a demonstration of government action.” 

The Report Highlights the following drivers for the increase in the prison population: 

• The increased use of custodial sentences (which is higher than in comparable countries) and a decline in the use of noncustodial sentences 

• An increase in the lengths of the prison sentence people are being given 

• The growth in the numbers of people being held in prison on recall and remand  

The report goes on to state that if prisons are to achieve rehabilitation successfully and to return people safely into the community, there needs to be a fundamental shift in what is driving sentencing policy. This must be grounded in public service reform driven by the need for a sustainable, accountable and transparent system alongside sentencing’s role to punish, protect and rehabilitate people who offend.  

4. The focus on imprisonment as the default solution has led to underinvestment in community alternatives 

A significant share of resource has been invested in the prison system, with an underinvestment in probation and alternatives. This lack of resources for the community means that budget constraints and high caseloads have resulted in fewer resources for supervision and support, and the pressure placed on probation officers limits the amount of adequate and individualised attention they can provide to the people they supervise. The chronic underfunding of these services has in turn led to judges and magistrates losing trust in the delivery of community sentences due to the perceived quality of probation’s delivery. 

“A critical factor in successfully reducing reoffending is the integration of preventative measures and support services which address the underlying issues that contribute to criminal behaviour.” 

5. We need a new rounded understanding of what sentencing is for and how it is applied in practice  

The report notes that punishment is an important aim for the criminal justice system and prison plays a vital role in delivering punishment. However, decision-making has too often been based on an approach that punishment is all that matters, and that the only form of punishment that counts is imprisonment. The review challenges this and instead advocates for an approach rooted in all of the statutory aims of sentencing: punishment, crime reduction, reform and rehabilitation, public protection and reparation. 

“In sum, a proliferation of misinformation and external intervention has driven sentencing inflation more broadly. The interplay between political agendas, the media and implementing guidelines has led to sentencing which deviates from the intended balance and purpose and focuses primarily on punishment understood as longer incarceration.” 

What next?

In Spring 2025, the Review will deliver recommendations in response to the prison overcrowding crisis, which is currently putting inordinate strain throughout the entire criminal justice system. The recommendations will include immediate short-term measures, as well as a vision for the future rooted in the statutory principles of sentencing and public service reform:

1. Punish people who commit crime and protect the public;  
2. Encourage people to turn their backs on a life of crime, cutting crime by reducing reoffending;  
3. Expand and make greater use of punishment outside of prison.

Nacro believe that the following recommendations should form part of the solution: 

• An independent body should be created which reviews sentencing legislation and practice, focusing on the creation and maintenance of a sentencing framework that is measured, proportionate and evidence-led to avoid unevidenced sentence inflation in the future.  
• We should end the use of ineffective short prison sentences, and seek to move towards community-based sentencing 
• It is critical that we significantly invest in community services and an effective Probation Service to deliver the practical and personal support needed to reduce reoffending, and to increase the confidence of victims, the judiciary and the wider public.  
• We must review the framework for recall to ensure it is used fairly and appropriately and consider where the power to recall someone should sit.